The article from the South China Morning Post explores whether China’s recent demonstration of restraint in its international behavior can lead to a more peaceful competition with the United States. Here is a detailed summary of the article:
- Background Context: The article starts by describing the tense and competitive relationship between the US and China. Historically, the rivalry between these two superpowers has been characterized by strategic competition and frequent conflicts, especially over issues such as trade, technology, and regional influence.
- China’s Recent Restraint: The article sheds light on recent instances where China has shown a more cautious approach in its foreign policy. For instance, China’s reactions to U.S. actions like sanctions and diplomatic pressure have been more moderate compared to its previous aggressive stances.
- Strategic Calculations: The author suggests that China’s change in behaviour could be a strategic decision aimed at avoiding escalation and managing international perceptions. By demonstrating restraint, China could be trying to stabilise its international relationships and reduce the risk of direct conflict with the United States.
- Implications for U.S.-China Relations: The article examines how this approach could impact the dynamics of the rivalry. If China continues to demonstrate restraint, it could encourage a more constructive dialogue and collaboration on global issues such as climate change and economic stability.
- Challenges and Skepticism: Despite these positive signs, there is doubt about whether China’s restraint will lead to lasting peace. The article points out that the fundamental problems and disagreements are still significant, and there is a risk that these underlying tensions could reemerge.
- Conclusion: The article concludes by considering whether China’s more restrained approach could lead to a more peaceful and stable competition with the United States. It highlights that although restraint is a positive step, achieving a more cooperative international environment will require consistent efforts and genuine commitment from both parties.
Overall, the article expresses optimism about the possibility of reduced tensions between the U.S. and China. However, it also cautions about the long-term outlook for U.S.-China relations.
Read more below.
Can China’s restraint inspire a more peaceful rivalry with the US?
Graham Allison, a Harvard professor who is best known for his 2017 book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, observed in The National Interest late last week, “China’s rise from essentially nowhere to become the leading rival of the United States in the Olympics mirrors its rise in virtually every other dimension to become the defining geopolitical rival in the [21st century].”
Beijing knows more acutely that even allowing for America’s global supremacy as a result of a series of fortunate events, Washington had been painfully patient about its fruition. By the late 19th century, America’s purchasing power parity had caught up with Britain’s. US gross domestic product was nearly triple that of Britain’s when World War I started, yet it did not take the baton of world hegemony till 1945. This also explains Beijing’s strategic forbearance, in both economic and military domains.
According to The Economist, a mere US$1.5 trillion in overseas sales were earned in 2023 by publicly listed companies in China, as opposed to US$5.8 trillion and US$6.4 trillion respectively by those in the US and Europe. One can imagine how big a catch-up game China’s businesses have to play beyond its borders, while those who have vocally indicted Beijing find no reason to cease being critical.
Let’s hope Beijing’s strategic forbearance continues. In this sense, perhaps the quote from Allison should evoke a wish for the US-China geopolitical rivalry to mirror the Paris Olympics – a fierce, but peaceful, competition.
By: Terry Su – president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics
Source: South China Morning Post
