Summary by Geopolist | Istanbul Center for Geopolitics:
Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president, won by a significant margin and is continuing the agenda of her mentor, AMLO. Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City with a background in energy engineering, plans to consolidate infrastructure projects, uphold austerity measures, and maintain social welfare programs. Her administration faces challenges including violence, economic growth, and navigating relations with the US. She has pledged to tackle these issues with a new gender-balanced cabinet and by focusing on welfare programs and police capabilities.
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Mexico has elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. What does this mean for Mexico and its relationships with the United States and Australia?
Claudia Sheinbaum has not only been elected as Mexico’s first female president, but has done it in a remarkable landslide victory. She won between 58 percent and 60 percent of the vote in the recent election: 30 percent over her closest rival!
There’s more. Sheinbaum is the most voted candidate in Mexican history, getting five million votes more than López Obrador (aka. AMLO)—the current Mexican president and Sheinbaum’s mentor.
The coalition behind her—led by MORENA, AMLO’s party—won a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and will be able to amend the Constitution without the need to negotiate with the opposition. This super majority promises to unclog AMLO’s controversial package of constitutional reforms, which aroused both supporters and critics, before dying out in Congress. The proposals pledge to “redirect public life along the path of freedom, justice and democracy,” enshrining in the Mexican Constitution some of the signature policies of his administration.
As AMLO’s protégée, Sheinbaum has vowed to carry on with his agenda: consolidating his major infrastructure projects, pushing on with his austerity measures, and preserving his social welfare programs. Their decisive victory in the election will put their intentions to the test; AMLO did not pass these reforms when he had the majority to do so. Will Claudia do it now?
Who is she?
Sheinbaum, 61-year-old, descends from Jewish maternal grandparents who immigrated to Mexico from Bulgaria while fleeing the Nazis. Both of her parents were scientists, and she holds a PhD in energy engineering herself.
Before delving into politics, she had a distinguished career as an academic, with expertise on climate change. This prestige eventually earned her the position of secretary of the environment for Mexico City when AMLO was mayor of the capital.
In 2018, Sheinbaum became the first female mayor of Mexico City. Her administration is hard to assess. Her social programs were remarkably successful, and she achieved notable institutional developments.
However, she was not exempt from corruption scandals, including some that cost lives. Her discourse is markedly feminist, yet she has refused to criticise her party-colleagues accused of sexual assault.
To understand this landslide victory, we need to note who voted for her. It was not women—but men—who voted her in higher rates. The higher the education level, the lower the proportion of votes in her favour. Similarly, most of her voters are concentrated in the lower income levels.
Unsurprisingly, it is the poorest among Mexicans who want AMLO’s project to continue; they are the main beneficiaries of his social policy. In religious terms, these people are willing to ignore AMLO’s “sins” because they have benefitted from his “good deeds.” Sheinbaum has promised to continue AMLO’s legacy.
Australia
While very far away, and certainly not the most pressing geopolitical issue for Australia, Mexico is shaping up to be a regional leader in Latin America. AMLO’s government has made some major diplomatic moves, such as offering political asylum to Bolivia’s deposed president (Evo Morales), and proposing a global anti-poverty plan before the UN Security Council. It would be wise for Australia to keep an eye on Mexico, as the country will likely become—along with Brazil—the main actor in its diplomatic relations with Latin America.
The challenges
From her predecessor, Sheinbaum will inherit not only superb approval ratings, but enormous challenges.
Mexico faces a catastrophic epidemic of violence and unsolved disappearances. Sheinbaum has vowed to tackle “the roots of the violence,” and promised to fund welfare programs to prevent poor, young Mexicans from being recruited by criminal groups. She also has a good record of strengthening the capabilities of the police, but we are yet to see if these strategies will be enough to control crime.
Mexico’s relationship with the US is always high on the agenda. Sheinbaum argues she’ll seek “a relationship of friendship, mutual respect and equality,” but analysts anticipate differences with the White House when it comes to foreign policy. Sheinbaum is unapologetically leftist, and friendly towards Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua; she’s unlikely to take the geopolitical positions the US would hope for over issues such as Gaza and Ukraine.
Economic growth will be another challenge for her. Mexico currently enjoys an economic bonanza, with record levels of foreign investment, remittances, and exports. However, the market is nervous about the tremendous majority AMLO’s party has won in Congress. This power enables them to enact reforms that, according to critics, would weaken the separation of powers and see the disappearance of some independent regulatory agencies. Also, MORENA—Sheinbaum’s party—seeks to increase cash transfers and welfare programs, which could continue to stretch public finances.
Claudia Sheinbaum will not face these challenges alone. The incoming president has already announced her first Cabinet picks. The new gender balanced Cabinet includes some technical and academic figures, and many familiar faces. Most of her top post picks come from either the outgoing cabinet or were ministers in her time as Mayor of Mexico City. Her selection is controversial. Some of her newly appointment ministers have successful trajectories, both in the public service and academia. For instance, Omar Garcia Harfuch—to be her security minister—is credited with halving the homicide rate in Mexico City; and Rosaura Ruiz Gutiérrez, announced to be the head of a new ministry of Science and Technology, is a well-established academic and has held important leadership posts in the best university in Mexico. However, other appointments, such as those in the ministries of Economy and Interior, have been taken by some to be a continuation of AMLO’s habit of choosing old allies more for their loyalty than their expertise.
Supporters argue most critics can be traced to the elites’ anxiety, who fear their privileges may be taken away, such as AMLO’s proposed reforms to prohibit fracking and stop granting mining concessions. Whatever the case, in the day after the election, the Mexican peso fell 4.3 percent.
In a celebratory event, in front of thousands of people who gathered in Mexico’s main public square, Sheinbaum promised: “I won’t fail you.” Let’s hope she doesn’t.
By: Dr René Rejón
