Summary by Geopolist | Istanbul Center for Geopolitics:
The article from the South China Morning Post highlights several key issues regarding China’s shifting stance on North Korea. Here are the main points:
- Deteriorating Influence: China’s influence over North Korea is diminishing, exacerbated by North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia. This realignment has implications for regional security, especially with NATO’s expansion into Asia and the strengthening of maritime military networks in the Indo-Pacific.
- Russian Impact: The Ukraine conflict has unintentionally impacted China’s regional interests, with North Korea’s support for Putin’s war creating further complications for Beijing. This situation underscores the need for a strategic shift in China’s approach to North Korea.
- China’s Strategy: The article suggests that China must move from a defensive engagement strategy to a more assertive one. China’s current passive stance and reluctance to fully enforce UN sanctions, such as repatriating North Korean workers, have not been effective.
- Declining Relations: Relations between China and North Korea have deteriorated, illustrated by declining trade and Kim Jong-un’s apparent distrust of China. The historical alliance between the two countries is now strained, with North Korea acting increasingly independently.
- Geopolitical Risks: The deepening North Korea-Russia alliance poses several risks for China:
- Associative Risks: China risks being linked with North Korea and Russia, potentially affecting its international standing.
- Increased Conflict Risks: North Korea’s alignment with Russia raises the risk of regional conflict, which could impact China’s security.
- Strategic Partnerships: China aims to strengthen ties with South Korea and Japan, which could be hindered by North Korea’s actions and its military alignment with Russia.
Overall, the article argues for a reassessment of China’s policy towards North Korea, suggesting that a more proactive and strategic approach is necessary to address these evolving challenges.
Read more below.
But amid deepened ties between North Korea and Russia, there has been a decline in maritime trade between North Korea and China. Furthermore, the Chinese ambassador in Pyongyang was reportedly absent from an anti-American rally held in Pyongyang on the anniversary of the Korean war. South Korean experts interpret these development as indications that China has started putting pressure on North Korea.
North Korea’s ambivalent attitude towards China hasn’t emerged overnight. North Korea’s deep commitment to political sovereignty has led it to frequently act independently of China.
At the same time, China has not treated North Korea as a genuine ally; rather, it has maintained a passive stance, adhering to a policy of preserving the status quo on the Korean peninsula. This approach has ultimately backfired, pushing the bilateral relationship towards a breaking point.
03:05
Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West
Putin, Kim sign ‘strongest ever’ defence treaty amid growing tensions with the West
By: Lee Min-Yong – a visiting professor in the School of Global Service at Sookmyung Women’s University, South Korea
Source: South China Morning Post
