Summary and Additional Remarks by Geopolist | Istanbul Center for Geopolitics:
On September 18, 2024, China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier navigated the waters between Japan’s Yonaguni Island and Iriomote Island, capturing attention for its strategic significance. This signifies a developing pattern in China’s naval operations near Japan’s southwestern islands. Three significant developments are apparent: China’s growing utilization of the Yonaguni Channel, a rise in hydrographic research activities, and an increase in anti-submarine operations in the vicinity of Yonaguni. These trends indicate China’s wider objectives to enhance its naval capabilities and contest U.S. and Japanese maritime surveillance systems.
A notable trend is the growing utilization of the Yonaguni Channel by PLAN vessels. In the past, Chinese naval forces mainly utilized the Miyako Strait to reach the Pacific, but there has been an increase in the number of ships transiting through Yonaguni recently. In 2024, a considerable number of PLAN vessels chose the Yonaguni Channel, indicating a strategic change. The number of passages through this channel has increased from zero in 2020 to 18 in 2024, with the majority involving significant combat vessels such as destroyers and frigates. This increasing activity indicates that China is utilizing the channel for operational training, highlighting its intent to acclimatize its navy to the region.
Another notable trend is the growing presence of Chinese hydrographic research vessels near Yonaguni and Taiwan. In 2024, these research vessels have notably ramped up their operations in the region, especially close to Taiwan’s Yilan waters and the Yonaguni Channel. The research vessels have been carrying out systematic surveys, potentially aiding China in collecting detailed data for upcoming naval and submarine operations. The hydrological surveys, conducted in a “lawnmower pattern” to carefully map the area, are essential for enhancing PLAN’s anti-submarine capabilities and deepening its understanding of these strategically significant waters.
The third significant trend is the increase in China’s anti-submarine operations to the south of Yonaguni. Chinese ship-based anti-submarine helicopters have increased their activities, especially to the east of Taiwan, reflecting China’s emphasis on readiness for submarine warfare. The frequency of sorties in this region has risen, indicating China’s ambition to assert control over these vital maritime pathways. This initiative is in line with China’s overarching objective of safeguarding its naval resources, such as aircraft carriers and submarines, against foreign monitoring and possible dangers in the Western Pacific.
The recent developments carry significant policy implications for regional security, especially concerning Japan, the United States, and Taiwan. The underwater surveillance networks of the U.S. and Japan along the First Island Chain could have vulnerabilities near the Yonaguni Channel, which may allow China to deploy submarines into the Western Pacific without being detected. Furthermore, the increase in PLAN activities presents a significant challenge to Taiwan’s navy, as Chinese operations near Su’ao Port—Taiwan’s naval base—could heighten the pressure on Taiwanese vessels, especially the older frigates and destroyers.
Japan faces logistical challenges in addressing these frequent incursions by the PLAN. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force would have to send ships from Okinawa, which is located further from Yonaguni compared to the Chinese naval bases in Fujian. This disparity may hinder Japan’s ability to effectively observe and respond to Chinese actions in the area. With China’s naval operations on the rise, Japan and Taiwan might need to enhance their coordination mechanisms to facilitate an effective response while avoiding additional conflict.
China’s naval activities near Yonaguni Island signify a calculated attempt to bolster its maritime presence in the area, contest U.S.-Japan surveillance efforts, and improve its anti-submarine warfare capabilities. The trends indicate that China is preparing to enhance its influence over essential maritime pathways in the Western Pacific, potentially leading to important consequences for the security landscape in the region.
Read more here.
