This essay in Foreign Affairs investigates the evolving dynamics of global power, with a particular emphasis on the United States’ endeavours to preserve its influence. Amy Zegart argues that conventional power metrics, including military strength and natural resources, are inadequate for guaranteeing dominance. Rather, technological innovation and knowledge are increasingly the driving forces behind power, and they are frequently fostered in academic institutions and corporate sectors.
Transformation of Power
A variety of factors, including territorial possessions, maritime capabilities, armed forces, and natural resources, have influenced the evaluation of a country’s strength over time. Nevertheless, in the present day, power is becoming more reliant on intangible assets, including technology, knowledge, and innovation.
Ukraine’s remarkable resilience in the face of Russia’s military supremacy is truly remarkable, especially in light of the protracted conflict. The capacity to generate innovative concepts and manufacture unmanned aerial vehicles and weapons as needed, without relying on a conventional naval force, underscores the fact that power is no longer solely determined by size or available resources. Rather, it is assessed on the basis of flexibility, ingenuity, and technology expertise.
The rapid expansion of the impact of emergent technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), is accelerating economic and military advancements, making it increasingly challenging for governments to regulate the impact beyond national borders and industries. In contrast to conventional military assets, these technological capabilities are frequently located in the private sector and may pose challenges in terms of regulation or retrieval once they have been disseminated globally.
The essay examines the increasing influence of the private sector on geopolitics, specifically the transfer of power from government entities to private individuals or organizations, particularly in the field of technology.
In the current geopolitical climate, the initiatives of private enterprises such as Meta (formerly known as Facebook) and SpaceX (established by Elon Musk and responsible for Starlink) are greatly impacting global relations. For example, Musk’s satellite network enabled him to supervise Ukraine’s military communication capabilities during the conflict, thereby exerting a significant geopolitical influence.
The frequent interactions between the chief executive officers of prominent American corporations with significant investments in China and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as senior U.S. officials such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, provide evidence of the increasing influence of corporate interests on foreign policy.
The article also examines the underlying issues within the U.S. government that are contributing to the decline of several traditional instruments of U.S. foreign policy and defence.
The United States’ military expenditure is being restricted as a result of the growing federal debt. At present, the United States is allocating a greater amount of money to interest payments than to defence expenditure, a phenomenon that has not occurred previously. The Pentagon encounters substantial obstacles in its efforts to finance innovative research and development initiatives. The financial burden and the absence of consistent funding from Congress have impeded the progress of innovation.
The U.S. education system is currently in a state of decline, which is crucial for the development of long-term innovation. Zegart underscores the inadequacy of funding for fundamental research, which is crucial for the development of groundbreaking innovations such as the Internet, mRNA vaccines, and artificial intelligence (AI).
Zegart contends that the future of U.S. supremacy is contingent upon its capacity to leverage “knowledge power,” which is comprised of two essential elements: innovation and foresight.
It is essential for the United States to preserve its global leadership by fostering technological innovation, which underscores the significance of technological advancement. Nevertheless, this necessitates a more fervent national emphasis on scientific advancement, meticulous research, and a greater dedication to education.
In order to anticipate the effects of emergent technologies on the national security of the United States, both domestically and internationally, intelligence agencies must possess the essential skill of anticipation. Intelligence agencies must enhance their comprehension of the impact that both domestic and global technologies can have on U.S. security. The distinction between private sector and public concerns is becoming increasingly fuzzy as a result of technological advancements.
The article also investigates the numerous factors that are impeding the United States’ capacity to preserve its status as a leader in innovation and knowledge.
The K-12 education system in the United States is currently facing substantial challenges, which have led to a decline in educational standards. The disciplines of mathematics and science have experienced a decline in proficiency, as evidenced by recent nationwide assessments. These subjects are essential for the development of future innovation. In contrast to their peers, children in the United States demonstrate inferior academic performance when conducting global comparisons. The global average is only achievable by a small number of states, such as Massachusetts.
Some of the most brilliant individuals from around the world have consistently been drawn to the United States. Regrettably, the present immigration policies are resulting in the departure of numerous accomplished international pupils upon completion of their education. This phenomenon results in a scarcity of talent in the United States, as numerous distinguished experts in disciplines such as artificial intelligence and computer science opt to return to their home countries rather than remaining in the country to contribute to innovation.
Throughout history, foundational research has been instrumental in the advancement of technology, frequently conducted in academic institutions. Regrettably, there has been a decline in this particular region. Nevertheless, the federal government’s financial support for this particular research has been declining, and neither large corporations nor individual donors are able to compensate for the dearth. Federal research funding has experienced a substantial decline in proportion to GDP since its peak in the 1960s.
Strategies:
Zegart suggests a number of improvements that are intended to strengthen the intellectual capabilities of the United States:
The United States has specialized governmental entities that are responsible for monitoring and evaluating the impact of new technology on national security. Zegart proposes that the government, academia, and private sector should increase the frequency of reviews and hearings to address the current state of essential technologies, such as AI, biotechnology, and space technology, for their own benefit.
Zegart advocates for the creation of a “computational reserve” in the United States, which would provide researchers with access to cutting-edge computer resources. This proposal is comparable to the appropriations for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the Interstate Highway System made by previous administrations. This infrastructure would provide researchers who are not affiliated with large technology enterprises with the opportunity to leverage the computational resource required for advanced research in AI and other fields.
The United States must implement immigration reforms in order to retain highly competent international pupils after they have completed their education. Additionally, it is imperative to restructure the U.S. defence expenditure process to prioritize adaptability, cost-effectiveness, and innovation, rather than relying on costly, obsolete programs.
The imperative necessity of reforming K-12 education is inextricably linked to the future economic prosperity of the United States. The quality of education can be improved by implementing initiatives that recognize and incentivize exceptional educators, while concurrently promoting their deployment in regions with insufficient educational resources.
The Effect on the Dominance of the United States:
Zegart contends that the United States is at risk of relinquishing its technological leadership to nations such as China. The United States has been surpassed by China in a variety of research and development domains, underscoring the necessity of implementation of substantial reforms. In order to preserve its status as a global authority, the United States must prioritize the cultivation of knowledge and innovation within its own borders.
The article underscores the significance of U.S. authorities acknowledging that the future of national power is contingent upon factors such as education, technological innovation, and a more robust knowledge base, rather than solely relying on military expenditure or conventional geopolitical strategies. The United States must adjust to a dynamic global landscape in which the acquisition of information is essential for the determination of a nation’s power.
Read the full article here.
