Summary by Geopolist | Istanbul Center for Geopolitics:
It has been four years since Myanmar’s military coup, which overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, plunging the nation into a brutal civil war. The conflict has decimated the country, with Suu Kyi and countless activists still imprisoned. Myanmar is grappling with a severe economic crisis, devastated healthcare and education systems, and widespread poverty, with half of the population now living in dire conditions.
The military regime controls less than half of the country, and recent losses in battle have shaken its grip on power. Opposition forces, including ethnic armies and militia groups like the People’s Defence Force, have gained significant ground, delivering critical blows to the junta. In 2023, the opposition captured key strategic locations such as Lashio and Rakhine state’s military command. Despite ceasefire deals brokered by China, the momentum seems to favor the insurgents, and the junta is increasingly resorting to scorched earth tactics.
The economy is in freefall, with most citizens now living in subsistence conditions. The junta’s conscription of young people to replenish its forces, the imposition of strict cybersecurity laws, and the isolation of conflict zones like Rakhine are contributing to a worsening humanitarian crisis. Myanmar’s economic collapse is already driving mass migration, particularly to neighboring countries like Thailand.
Despite the mounting challenges to the regime, a sudden collapse akin to the fall of Syria’s government in 2024 seems unlikely. The military’s deep experience in counterinsurgency and the lack of significant international support for the opposition remain obstacles. Nevertheless, the possibility of Myanmar splintering along ethnic lines looms, with China showing increasing involvement in securing its interests and facilitating ceasefires.
Ultimately, even if the junta is ousted, rebuilding Myanmar will be a monumental task, requiring the integration of diverse ethnic groups and addressing the displaced Rohingya crisis. Still, there is growing optimism that the opposition forces might eventually triumph, paving the way for a long and painful path to recovery.
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